Houston Weekly Market Update 9/4/2023

hey everybody it's Alex Frank again with the Artemis Realty Group um so this is your weekly market update uh okay so we had uh actually more new listings than we had last week we had 69 54 so it's an increase of like 6.5 which is pretty good option pennies are actually up for the first time in a month and 90 1977 up 0.2 percent which is great um we're probably going to see that number stay right around there right around there for a while um our solds are about 29 but again that's like you know a monthly lighting indicator um months of inventory was at 3.8 percent so we've been at 3.8 per 3.8 months for three months um our meeting days on Market you know it's been kind of steadily rising from 16 to 17 to 18 to 19 to jump from last two weeks ago we went from 1923 which is a pretty big jump now it's down to 21 which is awesome our uh number of actors actually dropped half a percent or 0.1 percent yeah point one percent uh so is it 50 000 862 our uh average price is on a five year five week decline at 431 318. um interest back up again they went to a three week low last week another back up a little bit um and our mortgage starts was we had more mortgage starts last week and then now we're back down to negative 2.9 percent um so you know if you've been paying attention to Jerome Powell has said you know we're we may have to raise rates again the consumer indexes and all have come out last week and it looks like everything's you know kind of steady um I can tell you that uh well I'll tell you that later about our partners what they've said our Goldman Partners have said um I went back and I looked at some numbers um so for the first week of January our months of inventory was 3.3 months I'm gonna try to make this quick because Abby says I'm too long on this uh 3.3 months our average price in Houston is 425 088 uh 30-year fixed is 6.45 so that means that your average mortgage payment only 20 down was 2609 right the first week of September I sent this out to our CFO over the weekend so this is a little bit old like a week uh months of inventory is 3.8 same same months of inventory that's a 15 increase average price in Houston is 433 so that's something that changed a little bit uh 4433 849 that's an increase of two points oh six percent from the first week of January 30 year fixed is 7.48 uh you're up 15 almost 16 and your mortgage payment with 20 down again is 29.01. so you went from 2609 to 2901 that's 11 increase now what we think is going to happen and not just we what our partners at Goldman what are uh the the case Schiller index the Zillow although we don't really pay attention to that uh Fannie and Freddie like these are these are institutions that have that predict what's going on and and they make financial decisions for a lot of people based on what they think is going to happen right so they can't just willy-nilly say it's going to go up or it's going to go down they have to present their evidence they think rates are going to remain relatively flat through the rest of the year and into next year right uh High sixes low sevens probably has sixes is what is what our partners at Goldman think right and then it's going to slowly in 24 at the end of 24 it's going to slowly come down probably mean the fives and 25. um there's not going to be a lot of inventory creation created there's just not right so what that means is is that people are you know homes home formations are going to happen people are still going to have kids uh people are still going to get divorced unfortunately people are still going to die people are going to retire that two-story is not going to be you're not gonna be able to live in that two store anymore because you may have health issues these things will continue to happen life does not stop because the interest rates are higher right and the inventory is lower so what that means is people are still going to move with low inventory even with rates High your prices we are going to see appreciation in this market so what that means is is that that 11 more that you're paying on your interest your more your mortgage payment from January the first week of January to the first week of September that's going to continue to go up interest rates will have to come down a lot to offset that increase in prices but those prices are going to go up so with that being said we think that now is a great time to buy conversely now is also a great time to sell because you are going to be able to take advantage you know we are we're seeing those prices start to come back up so you're able to take advantage of appreciation in the market now for those of you that have watched this you know that when I say that um you know we need some pain in the market for rates to come down you know we need people to lose their jobs which I'm not saying is a good thing that's just that's just the fundamentals of the market hour or like a a recession needs to happen right for rates to come back down our partners are very Goldman recently I think it was this week they've they've thought at the beginning I don't know when they first said this but they reduced their threat of inflation or potential for I mean not inflation threat of recession or potential for recession from 20 down to 15 so that we're going towards a soft Landing which means that we're probably not going to see that's why they think the rates are going to stay relatively High anyway I think we went on this a little too long um if you have any questions you know where to find me please reach out we'd love to talk to you